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However, entry into monetary union posed serious dilemmas for the countries of southern Europe. In the years before Maastricht, without capacities for coordinating wage bargaining, they had often relied on periodic devaluations of the exchange rate to reduce the prices of their products vis-à-vis foreign competition. Under EMU, they lost this capacity for economic adjustment just when emerging economies began to eat into their market share for exports of low-cost goods. The alternative route to growth for these economies lay in the expansion of domestic demand. Entry into EMU rendered this strategy even more attractive because it lowered the cost of capital in southern Europe, as investors from the north sought sites in which to invest their growing trade surpluses. However, the natural concomitant to a growth strategy led by domestic demand is wage and price inflation, which the one-size-fits-all monetary policies of the ECB could not contain without precipitating recession in northern Europe. As inflation reduced the real cost of capital, asset booms drew resources away from export sectors already struggling with rising prices for inputs.
The FTSE 250 index of midcap firms is seen as a better reflection of UK prospects. The index, more domestically focused than the FTSE 100, slumped 7% on the day the referendum outcome was confirmed. Unlike the FTSE 100, this index of smaller firms has not recovered all its Brexit-related losses. On Friday it rose to 16,130, still down 7% from 17,334 on the day of the referendum.
In line with these results, D8 describes compositions for the transdermal delivery of buprenorphine that do not cause major problems of skin irritation (column 3, lines 5 to 11). Moreover, any possible problem of skin irritation in a patient during a clinical test could possibly be handled by discontinuing the application of the patch.
As markets woke up on 24 June to news of the British vote to leave the EU, the pound fell to a 31-year low against the dollar. In the following days sterling slipped further against the US currency as fears about Britain’s economic outlook intensified and traders bet on lower UK interest rates.
Another condition for reserve currency status is the existence of financial markets in which monetary authorities are willing to invest their foreign exchange reserves. As noted below, that is also important for private holdings of a currency outside the borders of the country that issues it.
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Currently, the GBP EUR currency pair is trading at 1/11. This means that you get 111 euros for every £100.
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Elias Soukiazis, Pedro André Cerqueira and Micaela Antunes. Causes of the decline of economic growth in Italy and the responsibility of EURO.
The behaviour of unemployment in Spain was even more impressive, as it more than halved in the same period from nearly 19 per cent in 1998 to slightly above 8 per cent in 2007, far lower than in any period since the beginning of the 1980s. The improvements in unemployment rates in Germany and France during the first decade of the Euro were much smaller, but still visible. The different results on growth and unemployment start telling us something about productivity. This is an issue covered in the next section.
This device was tested in an in vitro experiment in which it was applied to mouse skin for 24 hours. Document D1 fails to disclose the use of the transdermal device of example 3 in humans for a dosing interval of at least 7 days.
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In those circumstances, trade among the 11 countries will probably increase in relation to their trade with the rest of the world. Both imports from and exports to non-EMU countries would increase less rapidly than in the past.
Like all such initiatives, the decision to establish the Economic and Monetary Union in Europe was multiply motivated: EMU was both an economic and political construction. Officials, such as Jacques Delors, the president of the European Commission, saw EMU as a way to deepen the single market. President François Mitterrand of France hoped monetary union would reduce the influence that the German Bundesbank held in the prior European monetary system. Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany saw it as a way to bind a newly-unified Germany to Europe, ensuring its trading partners could not gain advantages over German products by devaluing their currencies.
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After (https://restvostok.ru/free/?key=4147) about four months since the Brexit deal, negotiations were tabled to determine whether Article 50 could be triggered by Theresa May without approval by parliament. This proposal was ruled out by the High Court, indicating that the government could only pass the law through parliament. During this period, the pound plummeted by 4/6% to €1/1044 from €1/1579.
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According to Ian Strafford Taylor, the Chief Executive Officer and international money specialist Equals PLC, Brexit has pushed the pound into uncharted territory, making the currency vulnerable and unpredictable. It is almost impossible to predict how the pound will fair against other currencies. The strength of the currency will largely depend on the kind of trade agreements the UK holds with other countries moving forward. Here are some of the forthcoming events that are likely to impact the pound in the foreseeable future.
The Crisis of the European Union
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This document relates to transdermal devices for the administration of active ingredients. In particular, it addresses the problem of enhancing the absorption of the active ingredient through the skin (see page 1, third paragraph and page 2, fourth paragraph). Document D5, discussed in paragraph of the patent in suit, explains that one of the major problems with the transdermal administration of buprenorphine is that this substance only badly penetrates through the human skin (column 2, lines 32 to 34). This would have directed the skilled person to consider document D1. Moreover, the teaching of this document is focused on transdermal formulations of buprenorphine. Indeed, all the five examples of D1 concern devices containing this analgesic opioid as active ingredient. Lastly, the transdermal device of example 3 is the same device as that of the purpose-limited product claim 1 of the patent in suit.
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In the 1960s, Charles de Gaulle, president of the French Republic, characterized the reserve currency role of the dollar as an “exorbitant privilege” for the United States. In that period, current-account deficits and surpluses were financed to a much larger degree than at present by movements of official reserves. In particular, when France had a current-account deficit, it had to use its scarce reserves of gold and foreign exchange to finance it. On the other hand, when the United States incurred a balance of payments deficit, it simply paid out dollars, most of which were added to the reserves of other countries.
The prospect of official interest rates falling even further from their record lows is bad news for banks. Low interest rates make it harder for banks to make a profit on the difference between the rates that are paid on savings and the rates that can be charged on loans.
Thus, the fate of the Euro hangs to some extent on future prosperity in southern Europe
Oral proceedings were held on 25 July 2021. For information on the course of the oral proceedings, reference is made to the minutes.
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This is confirmed looking at table 2, which reports the average growth in the same periods as in figure 2, only splitting the pre-Euro period in two sub-periods. The trend slowdown of growth, with a trough during the Great Recession is visible in all the countries considered, but is particularly acute in Italy. So, again, there seems to be something special about the slow growth of Italy. What is also interesting is that, unlike what happened in the three other large euro-area countries, growth in Spain accelerated between the “Second Pre-Euro” and the “Stability Period”.
From its inception in the European Coal and Steel Community of 1951, institutional integration in Europe has always been multiply motivated. On the one hand, for some, it has been animated by the ideals of an “ever closer union” culminating in the European polity envisioned by its founders, Jean Monnet, Robert Schuman, and Alcide De Gaspari.
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To what extent is reserve currency status important to the United States? It is significant that the United States pays interest on the dollar assets of foreign monetary authorities that are held in the form of bank deposits or securities. That means that financing a deficit by an increase in liabilities to official holders of dollars is not very different from explicit borrowing in the form of security issues. The main advantage is that American medium- to long-term interest rates are probably somewhat lower than they would be if the dollar were not a reserve currency. But that difference has to be rather small.
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The response to the Euro crisis also laid bare a series of political paradoxes consequential for the future of European integration. In the context of coping with the crisis, the heads of government of the Eurozone met together or with other EU leaders an extraordinary fifty-four times between January 2021 and August 2021. On the one hand, these high-level meetings reflected unprecedented levels of consultation and cooperation among the member states. On the other, this modus operandi sidelined the Parliament and Commission, institutions that were supposed to gain influence under the Treaty of Lisbon, in the name of advancing European democracy. Just when it was supposed to become more democratic, the EU began to look more technocratic, and the “troika” seemed to some as if it were operating like an imperial power.
What does not emerge clearly from this long time series is a worsening of the macroeconomic performance coinciding with the introduction of the Euro. Indeed in the lower part of the figure we don’t see more negative deviations from trend in the Euro period with respect to the pre-Euro period. If anything we wee more positive than negative deviations from the trend in the “Stability Period”.
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For the first time since the Roman Empire, a good part of Europe will have the same currency. The euro will also have the unusual quality of not being issued by a sovereign government.
Figure 2. Real growth per head in the periphery and in the core of the euro-area
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On the other hand, the euro area has a surplus in the current account of its balance of payments (estimated at more than US$100 billion in 1998), while the United States has a growing deficit (estimated at well over US$200 billion in 1998). Apart from other influences, that would tend to lead to some depreciation of the dollar. But there are other influences: the growing current-account deficit of the United States has not depressed the dollar in the past year, given the high mobility of private capital that easily financed the deficit.
The major financial benefit the United States derives from the distinctive international status of its currency is seignorage: the accumulation of paper dollar currency abroad, since no interest is paid on such holdings. It is estimated that such dollar holdings in other countries amounted to between US$200 billion and US$250 billion at the end of 1995. With medium-term interest rates at, say, 5%, that represents an annual saving of US$10billion to US$12/5 billion, or a little more than one-tenth of 1% of America’s gross domestic product.
It would be fair to say that the euro contributed to an economic depression in Greece
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Whether the euro will tend to appreciate or depreciate in relation to the dollar in the early stages is quite unpredictable. The short-term interest rate that is likely to exist at the ECB in January is 3%, the basic rate in France and Germany toward which other central banks have been reducing their rates in anticipation of the Union. In the United States, the basic short-term rate—the Federal finds rate—was about 4/75% as of mid-December. That alone would point to some appreciation of the dollar in relation to the euro.
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It is reasonable to assume that these problems will be ironed out over time. Meanwhile, there is no reason why the United States should not welcome the establishment of the EMU and the creation of the euro.
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Therefore, the EU finds itself on the horns of a dilemma. Influential figures are arguing that the single currency will survive only if the Eurozone has an economic government of its own. But, since there seems no way of making such a government truly democratic, moves in this direction threaten to replace embryonic democratic institutions with a new technocracy. Caught between Scylla and Charybdis, the member states are currently temporizing. With a fiscal compact committing the member states to budgetary balance and new regulations for the supervision of national budgets, the European authorities have acquired unprecedented powers of purview over national budgets, but it remains unclear whether those powers will ever really be exercised.
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The index has also had significant support from shares in those companies that report a large chunk of earnings in dollars. As the pound falls against the dollar their earnings have been flattered.
Are countries likely to shift their official reserves out of dollars into euros? Those countries that link their exchange rates to European currencies—by a currency board, a fixed or crawling peg, or a managed float—probably already hold deutsche marks or other European currencies in their reserves. That applies mainly to countries in Eastern Europe, most of which link their currencies to the deutsche mark since much of their trade is with Germany. They will very likely hold their reserves mainly in euros.
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The euro will also have the unusual quality of not being issued by a sovereign government
To date, the record of southern Europe on these fronts is spotty. Except in some regions, levels of vocational training and tertiary education lag behind those of northern Europe, and spending on research and development is at relatively low levels. But there is opportunity for improvement to be found here.
During the 1950s and 1960s, European integration offered gains that were relatively clear. The European Economic Community provided a vehicle for economic reconstruction and peace in Western Europe. A generation decimated by war took those as superordinate goals.
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Government bonds in the the UK and elsewhere have been in demand since the referendum as investors ditch assets like shares and seek out safer investments amid worries about the impact of Brexit on an already fragile global economy. As a result, yields – which move inversely to prices of bonds – have fallen.
Currency Fluctuations: How they Affect the Economy
Generally, there is room for improvement for the sterling pound. However, its value could also fall further.
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Figure 4. Total factor productivity growth in the periphery and in the core of the euro-area (1990-2021
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Another condition underlined during the Euro crisis is the presence of a European central bank with the capability to act as a lender of last resort both to banks and to sovereigns in order to deter speculative attacks in the financial markets. Although it is still formally enjoined from purchasing sovereign debt, the ECB has moved in this direction over recent years with its program of outright monetary transactions (OMT) backed by an announced resolve “to do what it takes” to preserve the Euro. Much depends on whether these practices are accepted as legitimate modes of operation going forward, and it is conceivable that they might be.
The negative economic consequences are most evident in the case of Greece, although there are some parallel features in the treatment of Portugal and Ireland as well. Greece suffered a classic debt crisis as a result of profligate public spending and inadequate systems for tax collection.
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However, the European Union is in trouble today, seemingly unable to deliver the peace and prosperity that has always been its promise. The long-running Euro crisis is the most prominent manifestation of its problems. A slow-moving debacle, the crisis has laid bare the fault lines of the European Union.
Investors have been offloading shares in UK and other European banks on worries about the economic outlook and their likely profitably in uncertain times. The FTSE 350 index of bank shares is down 11% since the referendum.
Moreover, a fiscal compact that marries a “one-size-fits-all” fiscal policy to the “one-size-fits-all” monetary policy of the single currency is not a recipe for economic success. As I have noted, because the political economies of the member states are organized in different ways, they cannot all emulate the export-led growth strategies of Germany. Some can prosper only via demand-led growth strategies that require more relaxed fiscal policies. The clear-cut danger is that the Eurozone may become locked into a deflationary macroeconomic stance that condemns some of its member states to slow rates of economic growth for years to come.
The first stage of the euro was the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM), under which prospective future members of the eurozone fixed their exchange rates to the German mark. Germany has the largest economy in the eurozone and had a history of sound monetary policy since World War II. However, pegging exchange rates to the German mark may have created a bias in favor of Germany.
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Representation in other fora such as the OECD, Group of Seven, Group of Ten, and similar councils will also be complicated. When finance ministers and central bank governors meet, presumably there will be only one central bank governor from euroland, the president of the ECB.
How rapidly, if at all, will other countries switch their reserves to the euro? Of those that peg their exchange rates, most do so to the dollar or to a basket of currencies in which the dollar is dominant. They are unlikely to switch on a large scale. Furthermore, most Latin American and Asian countries have closer trade relations with the United States than with Europe. They are likely to stick to the dollar, but they could gradually diversify their reserve holdings. What can be said with some assurance is that if switches of reserves from dollars to euros do occur, the process will be gradual. Central banks around the world would certainly avoid large sales of dollars and purchases of euros, since that would tend to lower the value of their remaining dollar holdings.
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Indeed, as explained above, the poor penetration of buprenorphine through human skin constituted a major hurdle in the development of methods of pain treatment using a buprenorphine patch. Document D1, however, addresses this problem and discloses in example 3 a device that in an in vitro test provides the best results in terms of the percentage of buprenorphine that penetrates mouse skin. Although the skilled person would have been aware that positive results obtained in experimental models are not necessarily confirmed in clinical tests, the Board sees no reason why he should have been sceptical about the possibility of using the device of example 3 of D1 effectively on humans. On a fair reading, it is apparent that the purpose of D1 is to provide useful transdermal devices for the treatment of pain in humans.
In this respect, institutional reform will not in itself solve Europe’s economic problems. The important issue is what sorts of decisions would emerge from any new set of European institutions, and those decisions will depend on the relative power and positions of the national states represented there. A new set of institutions dominated by a German government convinced that the budgets of every member state should always be balanced (and that trade surpluses reflect virtue while deficits result from vice) might yield policies no more conducive to growth than the current ones. Macroeconomic coordination at the European level will not be successful until those supervising it realize that there is more than one route to economic success.
The member states of the EMU will continue to be members of the International Monetary Fund. Even though they will have given up their exchange rates and balance of payments policies, they will retain their sovereignty, including fiscal policy and other domestic policies. Thus the IMF will continue to conduct consultations with the member governments, as it does with Luxembourg, which, as part of the Belgium-Luxembourg Economic Union, does not have a separate exchange rate or balance of payments. But when it comes to monetary policy, the IMF will have to consult with the ECB. On exchange rates, the relations with the IMF will be more complicated. According to the Maastricht Treaty, it is the EU Council of Ministers that has authority over the “general orientations” of exchange rate policy.
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Meanwhile, the European Union’s record as a guarantor of peace and democracy in Europe is being tarnished by its inability to prevent a resurgent Russia, under Vladimir Putin, from absorbing pieces of Ukraine or to deter Hungary, one of its own member states, from sliding back towards semi-authoritarian rule. Of course, Europe has always faced challenges, but to many people, the European Union now seems to be part of the problem rather than the solution. In order to understand why, we need to look back at the evolution of European integration.
Many commentators, especially in the northern European media, presented these bailout programs as acts of unprecedented largesse. Led by Germany, the north was said to have come to the rescue of the south, allowing indebted countries to avoid the perils of default. In hindsight, however, judgments about what happened must be more nuanced. Germany was sustaining a single currency that had been of benefit to its export sectors and was ensuring that loans made by its own financial institutions would be repaid. Moreover, the approach taken to these bailouts had unfortunate economic and political consequences that will haunt Europe for some years to come.
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Will the exchange rate of the euro appreciate, depreciate, or remain stable in terms of the dollar, the yen, and other currencies? Will the euro become an important reserve currency, challenging the international role of the dollar? Will the euro be widely used internationally by the private sector as a unit of account, a means of payment, and a store of value—the three traditional functions of money? A related question pertains to the potential importance of financial markets in euroland for international flows of capital. Finally, how will euroland, without a finance minister, relate to the United States, Japan, other countries, international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and international fora such as the Group of Seven and the newly formed Group of 22?
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Towards the end of March 2021, the pound sterling dropped again by 0/65%. This was as a result of Theresa May’s decision to trigger Article 50, which initiated the process of Brexit.
The UK’s 2021 general elections not only affected travel money, but it also had a significant impact on the pound. The election results saw the value of the pound rise to its highest against the euro since Brexit.
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The subject-matter of claim 1 was nonetheless inventive, even starting from document D1 as the closest prior art. The main distinguishing feature was the dosing interval of at least 7 days. The skilled person knew, for instance from D9, that the amount of active ingredient contained in a patch was much higher than the amount actually delivered to the patient. He was also aware that buprenorphine does not penetrates human skin well, as reported in D5, and that it may cause irritation, as indicated in D6 and D8. Thus, when considering the possibility of using the patch of D1 over a dosing period of at least seven days, the skilled person would have very low expectations of success. There was no indication in this document to apply the patch on humans for such a long period. There was no way to calculate the absorption rate in humans from the data of D1, relating to experiments carried out using mouse skin. Thus, the skilled person would not have tested the device of D1. Furthermore, to determine the dosing interval of a patch, it was necessary to perform clinical tests. The case law of the boards of appeal clearly excluded a "try-and-see" approach to situations in which clinical tests were involved.
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The amendments made in the auxiliary requests (see point IV above) do not alter the above assessment of inventive step regarding the subject-matter of the main request. Indeed, the parties did not submit any inventive step arguments specific to the auxiliary requests. Therefore, the Board concludes that auxiliary requests 1 to 5 do not meet the requirements of Article 56 EPC.
The time pattern of the Italian growth slowdown does not fit well with a responsibility for the Euro
Private holdings of international assets are of much larger size than official balances. For the world as a whole, the private portfolio amounted to about $7/5 trillion in 1995. Of that total, a bit more than half was denominated in dollars, twice the amount held in the currencies of all 15 EU countries (when intra-EU holdings are deducted).
At present, euroland has a sizable current-account surplus. The question is, will it become a substantial exporter of capital?
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The most egregious case is that of Greece, whose revelation, in October 2009, that its budget deficit would be almost three times the projected level (later found to be 15/6 percent of GDP), touched off the crisis of confidence in sovereign debt. As skittish investors bailed out of Greek bonds, contagion spread to Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, where private sector lending had expanded exponentially on the back of asset booms in housing and construction, even though levels of public debt were relatively modest. In many respects, the problems in these countries paralleled those in the United States.
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Table 3 is far from representing a formal test of the correlation between the three variables of interest. Overall, we find that the decrease over time of TFP growth, that of the real interest rate and that of growth per head is a generalised phenomenon in the four countries. However there are also some interesting remarks in addition to this generalised, common move. For instance, all countries achieve significant growth during the “Stability Period” even if TFP growth becomes negative in all countries except Germany, as a confirmation that unemployment decreased in that period. It is also interesting that the real rate of interest went up in Italy and Spain in the “Great Recession” period, but growth went further down in the two countries and TFP growth decreased further in Italy. In the same period the real interest rate went down in France but the growth rate of TFP improved.
The current unsatisfactory answer to the question seems to be that the treasury secretary would call three people in Europe: the current president of the Council of Ministers, a representative of the European Commission, and the ECB. A similar question would arise if and when it becomes desirable to coordinate economic policies among groups of countries, as has occurred from time to time among the Group of Seven nations.
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